Zoom in and out of your situation

Think about a situation where you need to make a decision.

Zoom in.
Look at the inside view—your evaluation of your specific situation.

Zoom out.
Look at the outside view—how things generally unfold in situations like yours. The outside view is more accurate, but most people gravitate toward the inside view.

Ask experts.
Be careful what you ask them. Experts are pretty bad at predictions, but they are great at assessing base rates. Keep them talking about the past and the present, not the future.